Abstract

This work aimed to assess the risk of inundation by tide in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in the context of climate change by 2100 under scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. By modeling and GIS methods, results showed the southern area suffered the most, especially in CanGio, NhaBe and BinhChanh districts. By 2050, the inundated area in these localities would be approximately 3518ha, 677ha, 1576ha under RCP4.5 and 3561ha, 709ha, 1618ha under RCP8.5. The corresponding figures at the end of this century would be 12246ha, 2085ha, 3724ha under RCP4.5, and 14713ha, 2320ha, 4355ha under RCP8.5. This work also simulated the case of considering some flood control projects, thereby, tidal flooding in HCMC would be reduced, especially in BinhChanh, NhaBe, and District 7. In 2025 and 2100 (RCP8.5), as compared with those in the former case (without works), flooded area in NhaBe would decrease 16ha and 3.21ha, respectively. The corresponding figures for Binh Chanh would be 8.71ha and 1.62ha; and for District 7 would be 6.22ha and 2.35ha. The research results provide an important basis for planning suitable adaptation solutions, contributing to sustainable development goals of the local.